Latest version · 30 Sep 2026

Realism: prime time spread fairly

Two calendar treatments, every rule the model knows about independently checked, prime time chosen under per-club caps and envelopes, a realism report against the AFL's 2023 to 2026 fixtures, and every odd-looking result named.

For analysts: recorded build note

Season opens Wednesday 17 March 2027. Per-club Thursday and Friday caps, each club's own weekday history, weekend floors and no fading season; no club plays more than three rounds in a row without a home game; big Victorian games at the MCG; state spread caps; Darwin and Alice Springs placement rules. 78 rules evaluated.

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Version

What it is: Generated A fixture the model built from scratch through all five steps.
When: Released 30 Sep 2026 in “Realism: prime time spread fairly”, its headline version.
Built from: Re-run after rule changes from Victorian games and ground minimums · Wednesday-start calendar. The model builds a fresh fixture after rules change. It links to the previous release’s headline version. Differences come from rule changes, rather than a human edit.
Calendar: Wednesday opening (17 March) · Round 1 starts on Wednesday night 17 March 2027. A modelled assumption with no recent precedent.
Recorded facts: 207 games · 5 bye rounds · dates recorded · slot bands recorded · kickoff times modelled assumptions, not facts

What changed from “Victorian games and ground minimums · Wednesday-start calendar”

Prime-time allocation rules: per-club Thursday and Friday caps, per-club weekday envelopes, weekend floors.
Home-run cap: no more than three rounds in a row without a listed home game.
Big Victorian games at the MCG; state-presence caps; Darwin block and Alice Springs placement.

2 more changes from the release notes

Stage 4 solved in two steps with a two per cent tolerance.
WR-04: the 2026 Grand Final pair meet twice.

Games moved

172

Added

Removed

Clubs affected

Counts from the prototype comparison between the two versions.

Everything that changed, game by game

What the rules say

78 met · 0 not met · 0 switched off · 4 don't apply

At least one rule rests on a labelled assumption or an unknown rather than a sourced fact for 2027. Every 2027 release so far is incomplete, and says so. It is not a failure.

Only "Not met" is a failure. Everything else in grey is a limit of the checking, or a rule that has nothing to act on. The recorded counts include 1 analyst-level rule listed only on the rules page.

No checked rule is broken in this version.

77 met Rules an independent checker confirmed

Met, metAt least 81 games on free TV BC-01
Met, metThree live free-TV games a round BC-02
Met, metEvery game live on pay TV BC-03
Met, metEarly Thursday nights on free TV BC-04
Met, metBig occasions live on free TV BC-05
Met, metPay-TV-only Saturdays early in the season BC-08
Met, metWhen local games return to live TV BC-09
Met, metEvery local game on free TV BC-10
Met, metSame-state clubs never clash on TV BC-11
Met, metBye rounds still have seven games BY-01
Met, metSix days between games CBA-01
Met, metAt most three short breaks a season CBA-02
Met, metExtra rest beside a short break CBA-04
Met, metThe opponent has at most six days’ rest CBA-05
Met, metThree rounds between a club's short breaks CBA-06
Met, metOnly one interstate trip around a short break CBA-07
Met, metNo short break after a Perth trip CBA-08
Met, metPerth clubs: no short break then travel CBA-09
Met, metEighteen clubs in the competition FS-01
Met, metEveryone plays everyone FS-02
Met, metSix double-ups each FS-03
Met, metTwenty-three games each FS-04
Met, metTwenty-four rounds in the season FS-05
Met, metOne bye each, mid-season FS-06
Met, metGather Round in one city GR-01
Met, metGather Round: four days, three grounds GR-02
Met, metEveryone travels to Gather Round GR-03
Met, metKing's Birthday Eve MQ-09
Met, metPort Adelaide's Anzac tribute game MQ-10
Met, metFremantle's Len Hall Tribute MQ-11
Met, metFive games in Victoria for every club OH-01
Met, metVictorian clubs travel at least five times OH-02
Met, metEveryone visits Western Australia OH-04
Met, metDerbies are played twice OH-07
Met, metGames fixed in advance stay put RA-01
Met, metSix rounds between the two meetings RA-02
Met, metNo return games before mid-season RA-05
Met, metFinal round is for return games only RA-06
Met, metPerth clubs never travel two weeks running RA-10
Met, metNo club travels three weeks running RA-11
Met, metSold home games: the exact count SM-01
Met, metDarwin games are night games (venue deal) SM-03
Met, metDarwin in May, Alice Springs in winter SM-04
Met, metThree Giants home games in Canberra SM-05
No known conflict, metThe ground must be free that day VA-01No venue has confirmed any date, so a pass only means we found no booking that clashes.Flag an issue or email us
Met, metSame-state clubs in different slots VT-02
Met, metEveryone plays at the MCG VT-03
Met, metAt least 45 games at the MCG VT-04
Met, metAt least 40 games at Docklands VT-05
Met, metDarwin games are night games VT-08
Met, metNo lights, no night games VT-12
Met, metOne game per ground per day VT-13
Met, metThe weighted rule WR-01
Met, metDerbies are always double-ups WR-02
Met, metGrand Final rematch is a double-up WR-04
Met, metEvery game has one date internal:date.DATE-ASSIGN-01
Met, metBig Victorian games on separate days internal:date.DATE-BIG-CLUB-SAME-DATE
Met, metGames per day internal:date.DATE-DAY-CAPACITY
Met, metSame-state derbies per day internal:date.DATE-MARKET-CAPACITY
Met, metThursday and Friday caps per club internal:date.DATE-PRIMETIME-CLUB-CAP
Met, metThursdays spread across the season internal:date.DATE-PRIMETIME-THIRD-SPREAD
Met, metAt least six Saturdays, three to twelve Sundays internal:date.DATE-PRIMETIME-WEEKEND-BAND
Met, metEach club's own weekday range internal:date.DATE-WEEKDAY-ENVELOPE
Met, metEvery game has one round internal:round.ASSIGN-01
Met, metOne game per club per round internal:round.ASSIGN-02
Met, metBanned double-up pairs internal:stage1.forbidden_pairs
Met, metBig Victorian games at the MCG internal:venue.BIG-CLUB-MCG
Met, metGold Coast's Darwin games back to back internal:venue.GC-DARWIN-BLOCK
Met, metTen Geelong home games at Kardinia Park internal:venue.GEELONG-KARDINIA-COUNT
Met, metDouble-ups: one home game each internal:venue.HA-ALTERNATION
Met, metAt most three rounds without a home game internal:venue.HA-AWAY-RUN-CAP
Met, metEleven home, eleven away internal:venue.HA-BALANCE
Met, metMelbourne's Alice Springs game internal:venue.MEL-TRAEGER-GAME
Met, metEvery game has one ground internal:venue.OPT-01
Met, metVenue caps for interstate visitors internal:venue.SM-CLUB-INTERSTATE-VENUE-MAX
Met, metVictorian venue caps internal:venue.SM-CLUB-VENUE-MAX
Met, metEvery state gets footy most weeks internal:venue.STATE-ROUND-PRESENCE

4 doesn't apply here The rule is about a part of the season this model does not cover. Finals are not modelled.

Short breaks only in the home-and-away season CBA-03Doesn't apply here
Opening Round involves only some clubs OR-01Doesn't apply here
Opening Round clubs get an extra bye OR-02Doesn't apply here
Opening Round runs Thursday to Sunday OR-03Doesn't apply here

Every rule in this version, by family

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Same release

Realism: prime time spread fairly · Thursday-start calendar Thursday opening (18 March)

What this version is

What changed from “Victorian games and ground minimums · Wednesday-start calendar”

What the rules say

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