13 Sep 2026 to 30 Sep 2026 · 9 releases
How a fixture gets made, draft by draft.
How a modelled 2027 AFLAustralian Football League.Read more in the glossary fixture was built, corrected and refined across nine published releases.
A fixture can satisfy every written rule and still not look like an AFL fixture. This release wrote down the conventions that make one recognisable, calibrated each to recent seasons, and checked them independently.
Chapters
- Chapter 0Why model a fixture?The project records rules, builds fixtures with the available inputs and keeps every version. It asks how closely the result resembles the real thing.
- Chapter 1How a fixture is builtFive steps, each fixing one set of decisions: who plays whom twice, which round, which day, who hosts and where, and which TV slot. Each early step must show it found the best answer its rules allow, or the release does not ship.
- Chapter 2The first previewThe first complete modelled 2027 fixture arrived on 13 September 2026, with 207 games, dates and TV bands. Eight rules were checked and met; forty-six were not yet checkable. Geelong’s unusual home-ground pattern was fixed the next day.
- Chapter 3CorrectionsGeelong returns to Kardinia Park and each club gets eleven ordinary home games. Two start dates are compared. One club’s 21 Thursday nights prompt a realism check.
- Chapter 4Rules, addedIndependent checks grew from eight rules to seventy-eight in seventeen days. Follow the checks for return games, season shape, TV, byes, grounds, travel and prime time.
- Chapter 5Broadcast and prime timeHow the model chooses TV bands, follows broadcast windows and shares Thursday and Friday nights. Why its viewing predictions are not published.
- Chapter 6Operator refinementAn editor pins a 2025 opening game’s date and ground. The model rebuilds around it and moves one other game. The record lists changes without guessing why.
- Standing chapterWhat is not knownA standing list of gaps: AFL announcements, missing records, things left out, unchecked rules and results that look odd.
- Chapter 8How the AFL builds its fixture, and how ours comparesThe AFL’s 2024 fixture video showed season grids, rest breaks, round sheets, ground counts and home and away cards. Compare those screens with this site.
Chapter 1, in brief
Five steps, in the order they happen
We build the season fixture in five steps. Each settles one set of decisions before the next begins. Each step records its result. Separate programs check the finished fixture against the rules.
The full walk-through, with every rule each step must respect, is on How it works.
- Step 1: OpponentsOpponentsWho plays twice
- Step 2: RoundsRoundsWhich round
- Step 3: DatesDatesWhich day
- Step 4: Home ground and venueVenueWho hosts, and where
- Step 5: TV slotTV slotWhich slot
Afterwards: A human tweak, then a re-run. pin a game → re-run → new version → see what changed
Step 1
Opponents: who plays twice
Every club plays every other club once. Step 1 picks the six opponents each club plays a second time.
Decides: For each club, which six of its seventeen opponents it meets twice. That is 54 double-upA pair of clubs that meet twice in the season. Each club has six.Read more in the glossary pairs across the competition.
Like seeding a tournament. Top sides mostly meet each other again, bottom sides mostly meet each other again, and local rivals get a return match.
Step 2
Rounds: which round
Step 2 puts each of the 207 games into one of 24 rounds, and places the byeA round in which a club does not play.Read more in the glossary and the fixed occasions.
Decides: The round of every game, and the bye round of every club (one each, in Rounds 12 to 16).
Like filling a wall calendar with the big birthdays and public holidays pinned first, then fitting everything else around them.
Step 3
Dates: which day
Step 3 dates each game and follows the players’ rest rules. It also chooses which games get Thursday and Friday nights.
Decides: The calendar date of every game, and therefore which games are dated Thursday and Friday.
Like a coach spacing training sessions. Leave time for recovery and put the headline session where the most people can attend.
Step 4
Home ground and venue: who hosts, and where
Step 4 picks the home club for each game and the ground it is played at.
Decides: Which club is the home side in every game, and which ground hosts it. Every club ends with eleven home games, eleven away games and one Gather RoundThe round in which every game is played in one host city. Every club appears once.Read more in the glossary game.
Like sharing the family’s holiday houses. Honour existing bookings, avoid repeated long drives, and put the biggest gatherings in the biggest house.
Step 5
TV slot: which slot
Step 5 gives each game a slot bandA weekday and a time band, such as “Friday night” or “Saturday twilight”. Day, twilight and night are the recorded bands.Read more in the glossary: a weekday plus day, twilightThe late-afternoon time band, between the day and night games.Read more in the glossary or night. It models which games go live on free-to-airTelevision anyone can watch without a subscription.Read more in the glossary TV.
Decides: Each game’s slot band and modelled TV coverage. This includes national free-to-air games, pay-TV-only games and state coverage of local clubs.
Like filling a TV schedule. Honour the contract’s limits, then place popular shows where more people can watch.
Afterwards
A human tweak, then a re-run
A generated fixture is a starting point. A person can pin a game’s date or ground, give a reason, and ask the model to rebuild around it.
Like telling a travel agent, “We must fly on the 13th.” They prepare a new itinerary and list any connections that changed.
Release timeline
9 releases in 13 to 30 Sep 2026
Oldest first. Each entry is one release note, in the owner's words: what changed, why, and what was still unknown. Counts are the release's own tallies of rule verdicts; a switched-off rule is one nobody could check yet, not one the fixture broke.
Generated
First full draft
The first complete modelled 2027 home-and-away fixture: 207 matches, each with a date and a broadcast slot band, starting Thursday 18 March 2027.
A research preview to show the whole five-step process running on 2027 inputs, published with its limits visible rather than held back until complete.
What changed (3)
- First complete output of the five-step process for 2027.
- Independent slot, repeat-meeting, marquee and venue-blackout reports pass their stated scopes.
- Eight rules independently checked; forty-six not yet checkable; four not applicable.
Known limits at the time (3)
- Geelong's venue assignment is a visible quality limitation (fixed on 14 September).
- Venue availability is unknown for all 207 assignments; recorded ground bookings are avoided but no venue has confirmed a date.
- Not an official AFL fixture; acceptance incomplete.
8 met46 switched off4 don't apply0 not met
Generated
Audited re-run
Published late on 13 September (Melbourne time) although its tag carries 14 September.
Two freshly generated and independently audited fixtures, from two random seedA random starting point for a fixture-building run. Different seeds can produce different fixtures with the same rules.Read more in the glossary. All five program stageOne of five steps that build the fixture: opponents, rounds, dates, home ground and venue, TV slot.Read more in the glossary reported proven best for that step.
Test whether re-running gives the same answer. Record which match details differ between seeds, without claiming one fixture is better.
What changed (4)
- Two seeds published side by side. They share every round, date and slot; seed 43 differs in sixteen home-right assignments and 56 venue choices.
- Weekday totals recorded: 24 Thursday, 33 Friday, 88 Saturday, 60 Sunday and 2 Monday matches.
- Every second meeting at least twelve rounds after the first (the rule requires six); no round has more than four Saturday matches.
- Nine rules independently checked.
Known limits at the time (3)
- Geelong still has ten Thursday-opening home games at the MCG and none at Kardinia Park.
- Venue availability unknown for all 207 assignments.
- Geelong still has ten listed home games at the MCG and none at Kardinia Park.
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Generated
Repeat games fixed
The release notes select neither seed; seed 42 is shown as the headline because it continues the previous release's headline.
The same two fixtures, now with independent verdictAn independent checker's result for one rule on one version: met, not met, switched off, or doesn't apply.Read more in the glossary for the repeat-meeting rules and a concise assumptions summary in each bundle.
A rule the fixture happens to satisfy is not the same as a rule that has been checked. This release closed that gap for the repeat rules.
What changed (3)
- The six-round minimum gap and the no-return-before-Round-13 rule become checked verdicts rather than observed outcomes.
- Match facts identical to the previous release.
- Eleven rules independently checked.
Known limits at the time (3)
- Kickoff times and broadcaster TV coverage not recorded.
- Venue availability unknown for all 207 assignments.
- Not an audience recommendation.
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Generated2 calendars
Home and away balanced
Geelong gets ten ordinary home games at Kardinia Park plus Easter Monday at the MCGMelbourne Cricket Ground.Read more in the glossary. Each club has eleven home, eleven away and one Gather Round appearance. Both start-date settings are included.
The first preview's Geelong assignment did not look like an AFL fixture. This release added the venue rule and verified the club allocations that earlier versions only happened to satisfy.
What changed (6)
- Geelong: ten Kardinia Park home games plus the Easter Monday MCG game. The ten-game figure is a modelled 2027 assumption; the captured source speaks to 2026.
- Every club: eleven ordinary home, eleven ordinary away, one Gather Round appearance, independently checked.
- At most four Saturday matches in every round, including Round 23.
- Both opening configurations (17 and 18 March) are published. Under the available slots in use they produce identical match rows, and every delivered schedule begins on 18 March and ends on 29 August 2027.
- A provisional, model-based comparison between the two seeds was run and preferred seed 43. It is a modelled comparison of two candidates, not a measured audience and not a claim about the best possible fixture.
- Thirteen rules independently checked.
Known limits at the time (3)
- Venue availability unknown for all 207 assignments.
- Kickoff and TV coverage used for the model comparison are separate, explicitly modelled inputs, not fixture facts.
- No attendance model or new preference strengths were adopted.
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Generated2 calendars
New rules in force
New rules require Darwin night games, keep single meetingA pair of clubs that meet only once in the season.Read more in the glossary out of the final round and limit Victorian home-ground choices. Each release adds a separate structure report.
The rules the fixture is meant to follow had been written down but not all built. This release regenerated the fixture with them in force and listed exactly what each one changed.
What changed (7)
- Marrara Oval (TIO Stadium) matches are night games only; earlier candidates had one or two day or twilight games there.
- No pair that meets only once is scheduled in the final round; earlier candidates had two.
- Victorian home-ground home-ground limits hold. Earlier candidates had given Richmond three Docklands home games and the Western Bulldogs four at the MCG.
- Every release includes a structure report with 23 checks. These cover clubs, games, byes, Gather Round, travel minimums, ground minimums, derbies and basic consistency.
- The ladder feeding the tier rules is the completed 2026 regular-season ladder.
- The weighted rule was built but not enforced. Together with the Victorian ground limits, it left Step 4 with no fixture satisfying every rule on either calendar. The release left the choice of which rule to relax open.
- Thirteen rules independently checked; two more internal venue-cap rows recorded but not yet checkable.
Known limits at the time (3)
- Weighted rule not enforced.
- Venue availability unknown for all 207 assignments.
- Attendance value model remains unadopted.
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Generated2 calendars
Two start dates compared
Four fixtures: Wednesday and Thursday openings, each at two random starting points. Separate checkers now test the season’s shape.
The AFL has not announced the 2027 start date. Carrying both openings as genuine alternatives, and recording exactly how little differs between them, lets readers see the cost of the uncertainty.
What changed (6)
- The Wednesday-opening treatment becomes real: Round 1's Sunday-afternoon slot is replaced by a Wednesday-night slot, Thursday kept. Against the Thursday-opening treatment at the same seed it changes four dates and six time slots, all in Round 1, and nothing else. There is no 2026 precedent; it is a modelled assumption.
- The six full-season structure rules (clubs, matches, double-ups, games per club, rounds, byes) produce recorded results: nineteen rules checked, up from thirteen.
- Seed-to-seed within a treatment: 58 home-right swaps, 81 venue moves, 2 slot changes, no date or round changes.
- Venue availability refreshed: 0 confirmed, 0 blackouts, 207 unknown; no assignment conflicts with a recorded ground booking.
- Weighted rule still off; home-ground limits on. A diagnosis found that a small tolerance would make both feasible together.
- The Wednesday treatment has no model audience figure: the audience model has no Wednesday precedent in the 2026 capture and fails closed rather than guessing.
Known limits at the time (3)
- Venue availability unknown for all 207 assignments.
- Weighted rule not enforced.
- Thirty-eight rules not yet checkable; each is listed by id and reason in the bundle.
19 met38 switched off4 don't apply0 not met
Generated2 calendars
TV slots added
Four seed-42 fixtures include proposed TV coverage and the weighted ruleThe AFL's way of sharing out double-ups by ladder position, so strong clubs mostly play strong clubs twice.Read more in the glossary as a preferenceAn aim the model balances against other aims within the must-follow rules. Release notes also call it a soft rule or objective.Read more in the glossary. Separate checkers now test TV, byes, Gather Round, grounds and opponents. Checked rules rise from nineteen to fifty-four.
Most rules had been shaping the solve without an independent way to read them back from the delivered fixture. Building the checkers turned a largely unverified fixture into a largely verified one, and left exactly two honest unknowns.
What changed (6)
- Broadcast rules, bye rules, Gather Round rules, venue minimums, sold-game deals, minimum interstate games and opponent rules all gain independent checkers.
- Two rules remain switched off. The AFL has not published 2027 delayed-game quotas, and no ground has confirmed a free date. Neither gap counts as a pass.
- Each candidate carries a modelled broadcast allocation: which matches are on free-to-air nationally, with live pay coverage throughout. It is a proposal, not an announced allocation.
- The AFL's weighted rule returns as a weighted preference at two strengths; both are feasible with the home-ground limits on. A provisional model comparison selected the stronger setting on both calendars.
- Seed 43 proved the best answer at Steps 1 to 4 on both calendars. Step 5 found no slot arrangement satisfying the corrected Sunday rules. The release keeps both failed attempts for review, rather than presenting them as fixtures.
- The old Perth-ground afternoon restriction dates from 2013. It no longer fits Perth Stadium, so this release removes it from the checked set.
Known limits at the time (3)
- Delayed-game quotas and venue availability are explicit unknowns, retained as such.
- Model audience results are provisional, exclude unknown local TV coverage, and are not causal or global claims.
- This release is a publication repair of artefacts already delivered on 18 September; no regeneration or new result is claimed by the repair.
54 met2 switched off4 don't apply0 not met
Generated2 calendars
Final tidy-up
The last September release: three more rules checked, and for each calendar four different TV-slot options made and one chosen by a provisional model comparison.
Finish the structural checks that could be completed. Record how Step 5 chose among a fixed set of slot alternatives, rather than relying on one run.
What changed (5)
- Every club plays at least five home-and-away games at Victorian venues, with Gather Round counted by venue location.
- Same-state clubs cannot have overlapping slots, allowing each local game to be shown. This rule does not guarantee a channel or coverage.
- Ordinary-home venue floors: MCG, Richmond at least nine, Collingwood and Melbourne eight, Hawthorn five; Docklands, St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs nine, North Melbourne eight. Gather Round excluded.
- For each calendar, four TV-slot alternatives (Step 5) were generated from one base fixture. All four were distinct and proven best for that step; only time slots differ between them. One per calendar was selected by a provisional model comparison over that finite set.
- Fifty-seven rules independently checked.
Known limits at the time (3)
- Delayed-game quotas and venue availability remain explicit unknowns; acceptance stays incomplete.
- The slot selection is over a declared finite set, not a best possible season overall.
- The sequential-slot rule for same-state clubs is not a broadcast-channel or game-duration guarantee.
57 met2 switched off4 don't apply0 not met
GeneratedCurrentrelease candidate2 calendars
Realism rules added
The Wednesday 17 March opening is shown first as the headline treatment. Both treatments are published with the same rules; the order is an editorial choice the project owner may confirm or change.
The current release has two calendars and independent checks for every rule in force. Each club has prime-time limits and weekday ranges. A realism reportA comparison with recent AFL fixtures, checking each club’s weekdays, slots, home grounds and longest run without a home game.Read more in the glossary compares the fixture with 2023 to 2026, and explains every unusual result.
A fixture can satisfy every written rule and still not look like an AFL fixture. This release wrote down the conventions that make one recognisable, calibrated each to recent seasons, and checked them independently.
What changed (14)
- No club has more than seven Thursday games or eight Friday games. Thursdays are spread across the season. Each club has at least six Saturdays and three to twelve Sundays. Weekday counts stay within each club’s 2023 to 2026 range. The previous release gave one club 21 or 22 Thursdays.
- The model first lifts the weakest round's prime-time appeal, then maximises the season total, so the season does not fade.
- No club plays more than three rounds in a row without a listed home game; Gather Round is skipped like a bye.
- Big Victorian match-ups are at the MCG, never Docklands, with narrow exceptions, and no two share a date.
- South Australia, Queensland and New South Wales have limits on rounds without games, based on 2023 to 2026. Western Australia allows seven in this release, the most the current round structure allows.
- Gold Coast’s Darwin games are consecutive, with a Queensland game immediately before or after. Melbourne plays in Alice Springs during daylight between late May and mid-July, against a club outside the big Victorian group.
- Three more marquee matches fixed: King's Birthday Eve, and the Anzac-round home games of Port Adelaide and Fremantle.
- West Australian clubs never travel in consecutive weeks; no club travels interstate more than two weeks running.
- Venues without floodlights host day games only; one match per venue per day, except Gather Round and at most two Docklands day-and-night doubles a season.
- The previous season's Grand Final pair, Fremantle and Brisbane Lions, meet twice.
- Two long-standing unknowns now have checks with labelled assumptions. The model enforces broadcast windows and live-return rounds. It reports delayed-game counts beside 2025 figures without enforcing those quotas. It avoids known ground bookings; availability remains unconfirmed.
- Step 5 first maximises the model’s free-to-air audience prediction. It then maximises match appeal within a small, declared reduction in that prediction. These are model units, not measured viewer counts, and are not published here.
- A realism report compares every club's weekday counts, slot bands, home venues and longest run without a home game against 2023 to 2026. Every severe flag carries a stated reason.
- Seventy-eight rules independently checked; none switched off; four not applicable.
Known limits at the time (6)
- Essendon has no Friday nights on either calendar, and more Saturdays than in any recent season. The recency-weighted appeal policy explains this. The release names the result rather than adjusting it.
- Port Adelaide has few Saturday nights on the Wednesday-opening calendar. Many of its games lack viewing predictions and keep reference slots. A data gap explains this outcome.
- Western Australia has no match in seven rounds, against the AFL's two or three; a follow-up brings it to three.
- Brisbane Lions have seven breaks of six days or fewer after interstate games on the Thursday-opening calendar. Recent seasons had two to four. Every players’ rest rule is met.
- Venue availability is still unconfirmed for every assignment; delayed-game quotas are reported, not enforced.
- Acceptance remains incomplete; every stage's optimum is scoped to that stage and to the slot options that remained after unknown audiences were set aside.
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Always current
What is not known
A standing list of gaps: AFL announcements, missing records, things left out, unchecked rules and results that look odd.
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